Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in the upper reaches of the Hongshui River Basin during 1959–2016

Abstract

Understanding changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation is vital for flood control, disaster mitigation, and water resource management. In this study, 12 extreme precipitation indices and the best-fitting extreme value distribution were used to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in the upper reaches of the Hongshui River Basin (UHRB). The possible links between extreme precipitation and large-scale circulation were also investigated. Most extreme precipitation indices increased from west to east in the UHRB, indicating that the eastern region is a humid area with abundant precipitation. The indices for consecutive wet days (CWD) and precipitation events (R0.1) decreased significantly, indicating that the UHRB tends to be dry, with few precipitation events. The probability distribution functions of most extreme precipitation indices, especially that of R0.1, shifted significantly to the left in 1988–2016 compared with 1959–1987, further indicating that the UHRB has experienced a significant drying trend in recent decades. The East Asian summer monsoon and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation/Pacific Decadal Oscillation were confirmed to influence extreme precipitation in the UHRB. These findings are helpful for understanding extreme precipitation variation trends in the UHRB and provide references for further research. HIGHLIGHTS We do not focus on the Pearl River Basin (453,690 km2) but pay attention to a sub-basin (98,500 km2) within it.; Most extreme precipitation indices decreased slightly and nonsignificantly in the UHRB.; The number of consecutive wet days and precipitation events decreased significantly.; The UHRB has tended to be dry, with few precipitation events.; The El Niño–Southern Oscillation /Pacific Decadal Oscillation and East Asian summer monsoon have strong effects on extreme precipitation.;

Keywords

• extreme distribution
• extreme precipitation
• hongshui river basin
• large-scale climate indices