Data analysis-based time series forecast for managing household electricity consumption

Abstract

Recently, electricity consumption forecasting has attracted much research due to its importance in our daily life as well as in economic activities. This process is seen as one of the ways to manage future electricity needs, including anticipating the supply-demand balance, especially at peak times, and helping the customer make real-time decisions about their consumption. Therefore, based on statistical techniques (ST) and/or artificial intelligence (AI), many forecasting models have been developed in the literature, but unfortunately, in addition to poor choice of the appropriate model, time series datasets were used directly without being seriously analyzed. In this article, we have proposed an efficient electricity consumption prediction model that takes into account the shortcomings mentioned earlier. Therefore, the database was analyzed to address all anomalies such as non-numeric values, aberrant, and missing values. In addition, by analyzing the correlation between the data, the possible periods for forecasting electricity consumption were determined. The experimental results carried out on the Individual Household Electricity Power Consumption dataset showed a clear superiority of the proposed model over most of the ST and/or AI-based models proposed in the literature.

Keywords

• household energy consumption
• electricity consumption forecasting
• time series forecast
• data analysis
• xgboost
• 62m10
• 37m10
• 62j02