Spatio-Temporal Variability of Characteristics of Meteorological Drought in Iran under Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

Climate change affects severity and duration of drought, peak, magnitude, and frequency of the events in the coming decades. Iran is one of the countries that have suffered the most from drought. Therefore, drought monitoring and forecasting is crucial for drought mitigation and preparedness strategies in future. This study was conducted to evaluate the status of drought characteristics of severity, duration, magnitude, and peak in historical period from1966 to 2015 and future from 2016 to 2050 for 39 synoptic stations in Iran using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Also, for future simulation, the output of the general circulation model of CanESM2 based on two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and the statistical downscaling method of SDSM were used. Results showed that the trend of severity, duration, magnitude, and peak have no any significant trend. The SPI zoning map shows an increase in the historical period but will decrease in the future period under two scenarios. The results of the trend analysis of the severity, duration, and magnitude and peak drought showed that there is no significant trend in the historical and future in Iran. However, most of these characteristics are increasing in the northern, northeastern, western, and southern parts of Iran. Finally, the southern parts of Iran including Hormozgan and Sistan and Baluchestan provinces, the northeastern and western parts of Khorasan Razavi, Golestan, and Azerbaijan provinces will be most vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the risk of drought in these regions is high and it is necessary to seriously plan for the management of natural resources, and agriculture.

Keywords

• down scaling
• standardized precipitation index
• trend analysis