Analysis of the Effects of Job Policy Measures in Korea: Do the Job Policy Measures Impact the Marriage and Fertility of the Youth in Korea?

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of youth job policy measures, set forth in Korea's 2016-2020 Third Basic Plan for Low Fertility and Aging Society (December 2015), on marriage and fertility among young people. Based on the results, we provide theoretical explanations for the findings and suggest policy alternatives to overcome the low fertility phenomenon in Korea. Previous studies have shown that employment is an important factor for marriage among youth, and a job policy could increase marriage and fertility rates. To test this assumption, we performed an exact matching between Statistics Korea's Employee-Enterprise Linkage DB and the Newlyweds DB from 2011 to 2019, in order to identify all young people aged 15-34. Then, linear spline regression analysis was used to examine the impact of the youth job policy on marriage and fertility. Comparing the period before the implementation of the employment policy (2011-2015) and after (2016-2019), the fertility rate increased as the number of young people looking for work increased. In addition, it was found that these impacts were greater after the implementation of the measures (2016-2019) than before (2011-2015). It is interesting to note that job growth among young people did not lead to an increase in marriage. However, the number of births significantly increased when young people who occupy jobs got married, which seems to be related to the delay in marriage among young people who are employed. Survey results about the intentions to marry and views on fertility are utilized for the explanation of the study results.