US-China Competition from a Perspective of Global Product Network: Trends and Implications of Industrial Competitiveness between Countries Using Product Space Model

Abstract

This study aims to examine the trend of industrial competition between the US and China, which is the most crucial determinant in the future development of the global economy. For decades, the global economy has strengthened the global production network based on the division of labor between countries. Thus, the ripple effect of competition between the two countries should be analyzed in terms of the global production network. Therefore, this study uses the product space model, which explains the development process of industries with comparative advantage by country. We constructed the model based on the products of HS 4-digit code for the 2010–2019 period. The analysis results on the trend of the industrial competitiveness of major countries are as follows. First, the current industrial competitiveness of China is concentrated on low-tech industries. In the case of high-tech items, China shows a tendency of lower export sophistication compared to major manufacturing powerhouses such as Germany, the US, Japan, and Korea. Second, with respect to the possibility of a future industrial structure upgrade evaluated by density, the trend of China overtaking other manufacturing powerhouses is observed. As implied by the product space model, the advancement of the industrial structure through active participation in international trade enhances the industrial competitiveness. Therefore, the outcome of US-China industrial competition depends on who ensures more openness and industrial complexity.