Trends, spatiotemporal variation and decomposition analysis of pregnancy termination among women of reproductive age in Ethiopia: Evidence from the Ethiopian demographic and health survey, from 2000 to 2016

Abstract

Background: Pregnancy termination is a major public health problem, and complications of unsafe abortion are among the proximate and major causes of maternal mortality. Mapping the trend and spatiotemporal variation and identifying factors that are responsible for the changes in pregnancy termination help achieve the sustainable development goal of reducing maternal mortality in Ethiopia by understanding the epidemiology and regional variations. Methods: Data from the 2000–2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey were analyzed with a total weighted sample of 40,983 women of reproductive age. Variables with a p-value <0.05 in a logit multivariable decomposition analysis were considered significant predictors of the decline in pregnancy termination over time. Spatial analysis was used separately for each survey to show the changes in regional disparities in pregnancy termination in Ethiopia. Results: The magnitude of pregnancy termination among women of reproductive age decreased by 39.5 %, from 17.7 % in 2000 to 10.7 % in 2016. The difference in the effects of literacy, working status, marital status, age at first intercourse, age at first cohabitation, knowledge about contraceptives, and knowledge of the ovulatory cycle were the significant predictors that contributed to the change in pregnancy termination over time. Significant clusters of pregnancy terminations were observed in central and northern Ethiopia (Addis Ababa, eastern Amhara, and Tigray regions). Conclusions: Despite the substantial decrease in terminated pregnancies over time in Ethiopia, the magnitude is still high. The government should focus on promoting education for girls and women, providing reproductive health education, including access to contraceptives, and raising the minimum age for girls to engage in sexual activities or marriage by implementing policies.

Keywords

• Pregnancy termination
• Multivariate decomposition analysis
• Spatiotemporal analysis
• DHS
• Ethiopia