Rainfall Event–Duration Thresholds for Landslide Occurrences in China

Abstract

A rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence at a national scale in China has rarely been developed in the early warning system for landslides. Based on 771 landslide events that occurred in China during 1998−2017, four groups of rainfall thresholds at different quantile levels of the quantile regression for landslide occurrences in China are defined, which include the original rainfall event−duration (E−D) thresholds and normalized (the accumulated rainfall is normalized by mean annual precipitation) (EMAP−D) rainfall thresholds based on the merged rainfall and the Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH) rainfall products, respectively. Each group consists of four sub-thresholds in rainy season and non-rainy season, and both are divided into short duration (<48 h) and long duration (≥48 h). The results show that the slope of the regression line for the thresholds in the events with long durations is larger than that with short durations. In addition, the rainfall thresholds in the non-rainy season are generally lower than those in the rainy season. The E−D thresholds defined in this paper are generally lower than other thresholds in previous studies on a global scale, and a regional or national scale in China. This might be due to there being more landslide events used in this paper, as well as the combined effects of special geological environment, climate condition and human activities in China. Compared with the previous landslide model, the positive rates of the rainfall thresholds for landslides have increased by 16%−20%, 10%−17% and 20%−38% in the whole year, rainy season and non-rainy season, respectively.

Keywords

• landslide and debris flow
• rainfall thresholds
• china
• quantile regression