A Multi-Level Analysis of Risky Streets and Neighbourhoods for Dissident Republican Violence in Belfast

Abstract

This paper uses graph theoretical measures to analyse the relationship between street network usage, as well as other street- and area-level factors, and dissident Republican violence in Belfast. A multi-level statistical model is used. Specifically, we employ an observation-level random-effects (OLRE) Poisson regression and use variables at the street and area levels. Street- and area-level characteristics simultaneously influence where violent incidents occur. For every 10% change in the betweenness value of a street segment, the segment is expected to experience 1.32 times as many incidents. Police stations (IRR: 22.05), protestant churches (IRR: 6.19) and commercial premises (IRR: 1.44) on each street segment were also all found to significantly increase the expected number of attacks. At the small-area level, for every 10% change in the number of Catholic residents, the number of incidents is expected to be 4.45 times as many. The results indicate that along with other factors, the street network plays a role in shaping terrorist target selection. Streets that are more connected and more likely to be traversed will experience more incidents than those that are not. This has important practical implications for the policing of political violence in Northern Ireland generally and for shaping specific targeted interventions.

Keywords

• geographic crime analysis
• spatial patterns of crime
• terrorism
• civil war
• insurgency