Presentation of a Novel Method for Prediction of Traffic with Climate Condition Based on Ensemble Learning of Neural Architecture Search (NAS) and Linear Regression

Abstract

Traffic prediction is critical to expanding a smart city and country because it improves urban planning and traffic management. This prediction is very challenging due to the multifactorial and random nature of traffic. This study presented a method based on ensemble learning to predict urban traffic congestion based on weather criteria. We used the NAS algorithm, which in the output based on heuristic methods creates an optimal model concerning input data. We had 400 data, which included the characteristics of the day’s weather, including six features: absolute humidity, dew point, visibility, wind speed, cloud height, and temperature, which in the final column is the urban traffic congestion target. We have analyzed linear regression with the results obtained in the project; this method was more efficient than other regression models. This method had an error of 0.00002 in terms of MSE criteria and SVR, random forest, and MLP methods, which have error values of 0.01033, 0.00003, and 0.0011, respectively. According to the MAE criterion, this method has a value of 0.0039. The other methods have obtained values of 0.0850, 0.0045, and 0.027, respectively, which show that our proposed model has a minor error than other methods and has been able to outpace the other models.