Land subsidence analysis along high-speed railway based on EEMD-Prophet method

Abstract

Abstract Environmental changes and ground subsidence along railway lines are serious concerns during high-speed railway operations. It is worth noting that AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and other prediction methods may present limitations when applied to predict InSAR time series results. To address this issue, this study proposes a prediction method that decomposes the nonlinear settlement time series of feature points obtained through InSAR technology using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD). Subsequently, multiple Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) are generated, and each IMF is individually predicted using the Prophet forecasting model. Finally, we employ an equal-weight superimposition method to combine the results, resulting in the prediction of the InSAR settlement time series. The predicted values of each component are subsequently weighted equally and combined to derive the final prediction outcome. This paper selects InSAR monitoring data along a high-speed railway in inland China and uses the proposed method and ARMA and Prophet models to carry out comparative experiments. The experimental results show that compared with the ARMA and Prophet models, the method in this paper improves the root mean square error by 58.01% and 32.3%, and increases the mean absolute error by 62.69% and 33.78%, respectively. The predicted settlement values generated by our method exhibit better agreement with the actual InSAR monitoring values.