PROSPECTS FOR THE SECOND WAVE OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOVIC CRISIS

Abstract

Procedure of an economic and political situation current through the situation at the world oil marketforecasting is offered in the article. The compact mathematical model of cycling market fluctuations is the basis of thetechnique. The model allows splitting changes in market conditions caused by the economic and political reasons.This makes it possible to present the dynamics of the situation as the sum of two components, which are economicallyand politically induced. The model provides a forecast of the market economic components. These componentsforecast are made on the basis of world energy, economic and political situation scenarios. Retrospective analysisof relationship of economic conditions and political processes and how market conditions affect the economic andpolitical situation in the world in the past helps scenarios development. The results of techniques using for time andcharacters of next world crisis are presented in the article.

Keywords

• the energy policy
• current situation at the world oil market
• modeling
• economic forecasting
• political forecasting