Predictors of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in women who have never smoked: a cohort study

Abstract

COPD is responsible for an increasing number of deaths worldwide. Smoking is the most reliable predictor for developing COPD later in life. However, women make up the majority of patients with COPD who have never smoked. There is therefore a need to identify other factors that can predict COPD in women. The aim of this study is to identify factors associated with increasing the risk of developing COPD later in life in women who have never smoked. Data from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) cohort born between 1946 and 1951 were used to investigate potential predictors of COPD. Retrospective analyses were performed on data from two of the ALSWH surveys: wave 1 (1996) and wave 9 (2019). There were 3584 women who self-reported as being never-smokers (at waves 1 and 9) and did not have COPD at baseline, of which 109 had developed COPD at wave 9. Logistic regression showed a significant relationship between COPD at wave 9 and baseline breathing difficulties (p<0.001), asthma (p<0.001) and allergies (p=0.026), though significance of asthma and allergies disappeared when included together in a single model, implying that women with these symptoms earlier in life were more likely to be diagnosed with COPD later in life compared to women without these symptoms. Our study supports the inclusion of lung function testing in primary care settings for women over the age of 45 years who have never smoked and have a history of breathing difficulties, asthma or allergies.