Projecting future health burden associated with exposure to ambient PM2.5 and ozone in China under different climate scenarios

Abstract

Projecting future air pollution and related health burdens remains challenging because of the complex interactions among future emissions, population, and climate change. In this study, we estimated the premature deaths attributed to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) from 2015 to 2100 under four socioeconomic climate scenarios based on an age-stratified assessment method. We found that PM2.5 will decrease in all shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios and O3 will decrease in the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, contributing to a decrease in premature mortality together with the declining total population in China. However, the benefits of a decline in population size and PM2.5 and O3 concentrations over time will be largely offset by population aging, and premature death caused by PM2.5 and O3 will continue to rise till 2060–2080. This impact was greater for the O3-related deaths than those for PM2.5. Our study highlights the importance of future prevention strategies that must jointly improve air quality and susceptibility to aging.

Keywords

• Premature deaths
• SSP scenarios
• Air quality
• Population aging