A Vector Error Correction Model of the Australian Coking Coal Export

Abstract

This article examines the long-run equilibrium relationships between the Australian coking coal export and selected variables. Upon testing appropriate co-integration and vector errorcorrection models, we detected that the exchange rate of A$/US$, Australian coking coal price and world supply of coking coal have negative impact on Australian coking coal export in the long-run as well as short-run. On the other hand, world demand of coking coal and USA coking coal price have positive relationships with the Australian coking coal export in the long-run and short-run. All these relationships are statistically significant at the 1% level.

Keywords

• vector error correction
• cointegration
• exchange rate
• coking coal price
• coaking coal export