A Mid- and Long-Term Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Prediction Model Based on Deep Learning Technology

Abstract

Mid- and long-term predictions of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) are important for the safety and security of the Arctic waterways. To date, SIC predictions mainly rely on numerical models, which have the disadvantages of a short prediction time and high computational complexity. Another common forecasting approach is based on a data-driven model, which is generally based on traditional statistical analysis or simple machine learning models, and achieves prediction by learning the relationships between data. Although the prediction performance of such methods has been improved in recent years, it is still difficult to find a balance between unstable model structures and complex spatio-temporal data. In this study, a classical statistical method and a deep learning model are combined to construct a data-driven rolling forecast model of SIC in the Arctic, named the EOF–LSTM–DNN (abbreviated as ELD) model. This model uses the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method to extract the temporal and spatial features of the Arctic SIC, then the long short-term memory (LSTM) network is served as a feature extraction tool to effectively encode the time series, and, finally, the feature decoding is realized by the deep neural network (DNN). Comparisons of the model with climatology results, persistence predictions, other data-driven model results, and the hybrid coordinate ocean model (HYCOM) forecasts show that the ELD model has good prediction performance for the Arctic SIC on mid- and long-term time scales. When the forecast time is 100 days, the forecast root-mean-square error (RMSE), Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of the ELD model are 0.2, 0.77, and 0.74, respectively.

Keywords

• Arctic sea ice concentration
• mid- and long-term predictions
• spatio-temporal prediction
• long short-term memory (LSTM)