Nauka ta progres transportu (Aug 2019)
MODELING THE OPTIMIZATION PROCESS OF INVESTMENTS IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE ENTERPRISE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RANDOM COSTS
Abstract
Purpose. The study aims at substantiating the method to determine the optimal volume of investments for improving basic economic indicators of the enterprise’s performance selected by the company management at random costs at each stage of its development. Methodology. The proposed methodology for determining the optimal investment volume is based on simulation modeling methods and optimal control theory, in particular, the dynamic programming procedure, since the controlled process of the enterprise`s development is a multi-step one. Using step-by-step planning with generation of costs for transitions and statistical processing of results, a solution to optimization problem was obtained, to which the methods of mathematical analysis cannot be applied. Findings. An algorithm has been developed for calculating the minimal volume of capital investments for improving selected economic indicators and constructing the optimal trajectory for the enterprise`s development from the initial economic state to the final desired state. This takes into account unforeseen intermediate costs in the process of enterprise development. Originality. It is shown that using the methods of the theory of optimal control and simulation modeling, it is possible to calculate the minimal amount of capital investments to improve the selected economic indicators that determine the efficiency of the enterprise performance, taking into account the random costs of intermediate transitions by the development stages. Such calculation does not depend on the specific content of economic indicators. Practical value. The proposed methodology for calculating the minimal volume of capital investments is quite simple, but at the same time it allows, on the one hand, determining the priority areas of the enterprise’s investment activities. On the other hand, it increases the manageability and transparency of the enterprise’s economic activity, and increases the manager’s confidence in the correctness of the decisions made.
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