Climate Change Impacts on Climate-Agronomic Indicators of Wheat Growth in an Arid Region: A case study of Isfahan Province, Iran

Abstract

World climate change is an accepted important subject but its negative effects are severe in arid and semi-arid areas of Iran. So, in the present study, two climate scenarios including RCP 8.5 (critical scenario) and RCP 4.5 (moderate scenario) during 2020, 2030, and 2040 decades and their effects on temperature changes in the wheat growth period in five cities of Isfahan province including Isfahan, Najaf Abad, Chadegan, Burkhar, and Meimeh have been investigated. The survey of temperature changes during wheat growth in the next decades showed that Burkhar, Isfahan, Najaf Abad, Chadegan, and Meimeh, respectively will experience more days with a temperature higher than 30°C in 2020, 2030, and 2040 decades than the mean of two recent years (2017-2018). Furthermore, in comparison with present conditions, the most changes in the number of days with a temperature higher than 30°C in next decades climates (2020, 2030, and 2040 decades) will be in Burkhar, Meimeh, Chadegan, Najaf Abad, and Isfahan, respectively. The range of changes percent in the number of days higher than 30°C in next climate conditions rather than present condition will be varied between 5 percent (Isfahan) till 97 percent (Burkhar). The changes percent in all studied cities were more in RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5. During wheat growth, the number of days less than zero°C will be less in Isfahan, Burkhar, and Meimeh while will be more in Najaf Abad and Chadegan. The evaporation- transpiration will be increased in the next decades during wheat growth. As a result, planning and using compatibility strategies for each city is important to guarantee wheat production.

Keywords

• food security
• climate change
• global warming
• wheat