Statistika: Statistics and Economy Journal (Mar 2015)
Fertility of Czech Females Could Be Lower than Expected: Trends in Future Development of Age-Specific Fertility Rates up to the Year 2050
Abstract
Fertility is an essential aspect of reproduction or population replacement of each country. The challenge for demographers is to model fertility and also to estimate its potential future level for the purposes of population projections. In the case of the Czech Republic we have the population projections provided by the Czech Statistical Office (CZSO) with overlooking of the total fertility rate in low, medium and high variant. These estimates despite being based on expert judgments, seem to be too positive compared to the past development of the time series of age-specific fertility rates. The aim of this paper is to assess the situation of fertility in the Czech Republic, to analyse the past development of the time series of age-specific fertility rates using one-dimensional Box-Jenkins models and multidimensional stochastic Lee-Carter approach. Together with found trend in time series and principal components estimated by Lee-Carter’s model a forecasts of age-specific fertility rates up to the year 2050 is constructed. Th ese rates are lower than those provided by CZSO in its three variants of the Czech Republic’s population projection, and therefore we discuss the causes at the end of the paper. We would like to point out that the potential future development of Czech females fertility could be lower than which are currently expected.
