Extent of disability among paediatric Japanese encephalitis survivors and predictors of poor outcome: a retrospective cohort study in North India

Abstract

Objective To determine the Japanese encephalitis (JE)-associated long-term functional and neurological outcomes, the extent of reduced social participation and predictors of poor outcomes among paediatric JE survivors.Design A retrospective cohort study.Setting Laboratory-confirmed JE-positive paediatric cases (<16 years of age) hospitalised at the paediatric ward of Baba Raghav Das Medical College, Gorakhpur, India, between 1 January 2017 and 31 December 2017, were followed up after 6–12 months of hospital discharge.Participants 126 patients were included in the study; median age was 7.5 years (range: 1.5–15 years), and 74 (58.73%) were male.Outcome measures Functional outcome defined by Liverpool Outcome Score (LOS) dichotomised into poor (LOS=1–2) and good (LOS=3–5) outcome groups compared for demographic, clinical and biochemical parameters for prognostic factors of poor outcomes. Social participation of patients scaled on Child and Adolescent Scale of Participation score 2–5.Results About 94 of 126 (74.6%) children developed neurological sequelae at different levels of severity. Age-expected social participation was compromised in 90 out of 118 children. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, a combination of parameters, JE unvaccinated status (OR: 61.03, 95% CI (14.10 to 264); p<0.001), low Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) at admission (≤8) (OR: 8.6, 95% CI (1.3 to 57.1); p=0.026), malnutrition (OR: 13.56, 95% CI (2.77 to 66.46); p=0.001) and requirement of endotracheal intubation (OR: 5.43, 95% CI (1.20 to 24.44); p=0.027) statistically significantly predicted the poor outcome with 77.8% sensitivity and 94.6% specificity. The goodness-of-fit test showed that the model fit well (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test) (χ2=3.13, p=0.988), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.950.Conclusion This study estimates the burden of JE-presenting post-discharge deaths (15.4%) and disability (63.08%). Those who did not receive JE vaccine, were suffering from malnutrition, had GCS ≤8 at admission and required endotracheal intubation had poorer outcomes.