Effects of Sea Spray on Extreme Precipitation Forecasting: A Case Study in Beijing of China

Abstract

Abstract This study investigates the effects of sea spray on extreme precipitation forecast in Beijing of China between 28 July and 2 August 2023 as a case test. In this case, fully coupled model increased upward moisture in the Bohai and Yellow Seas and increased accumulated rainfall by 21% in North China. For the extreme precipitation events with the 5‐day accumulated precipitation exceeding 500 mm, the atmosphere‐only model did not forecast the events; the coupled model without sea spray performed well with the 0.29 threat score (TS) and 88 mm root mean square error (RMSE); in the fully coupled model, the effects of sea spray increased atmospheric instability, which increased the precipitation around Beijing and yielded a more accurate forecast with the 0.37 TS and 65 mm RMSE. This paper suggests a scientific clue to improve numerical simulation for extreme rainfall events, however, more cases are still needed for statistical evaluation.

Keywords

• sea spray
• precipitation
• fully‐coupled model
• forecast
• numerical simulation