Mutual Information Boosted Precipitation Nowcasting from Radar Images

Abstract

Precipitation nowcasting has long been a challenging problem in meteorology. While recent studies have introduced deep neural networks into this area and achieved promising results, these models still struggle with the rapid evolution of rainfall and extremely imbalanced data distribution, resulting in poor forecasting performance for convective scenarios. In this article, we evaluate the amount of information in different precipitation nowcasting tasks of varying lengths using mutual information. We propose two strategies: the mutual information-based reweighting strategy (MIR) and a mutual information-based training strategy (time superimposing strategy (TSS)). MIR reinforces neural network models to improve the forecasting accuracy for convective scenarios while maintaining prediction performance for rainless scenarios and overall nowcasting image quality. The TSS strategy enhances the model’s forecasting performance by adopting a curriculum learning-like method. Although the proposed strategies are simple, the experimental results show that they are effective and can be applied to various state-of-the-art models.

Keywords

• precipitation nowcasting
• mutual information
• data imbalance
• curriculum learning