“This is fine”: the impact of blowouts on subsequent game performance in the National Hockey League (NHL)

Abstract

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Blowouts in sports involve large margins of victory or loss between teams and have long been perceived as influencing subsequent performances by athletes, coaches, fans, and other stakeholders. Under the backdrop of the hot hand ph enomenon, the current study explores the impact of blowouts on subsequent game performance in the National Hockey League (NHL). Specifically, we examine the potential carryover of a “hot (or cold) hand” on the subsequent game following a large win or loss. In our study, we defined blowouts as outlying goal differentials for regular season games (i.e., a difference of approximately 6 goals between teams in a single game based on 3 standard deviations from the mean goal differential during the sampled period). Using this criterion, data from 285 games over the 2005–06 to 2018–19 NHL regular seasons were gathered for analysis. We performed a series of multiple regressions using blowout goal differential as the main predictor, adjusting for location of the subsequent game, number of time zones from the home base city, whether the subsequent game was a back-to-back, and winning percentages of the team and opponent. Our results revealed no significant over or under performance by teams that either won through a blowout or those that lost by a blowout. Our findings are consistent with previous work in other and similar sports contexts. Practical applications and future directions for research are discussed.

Keywords

• blowouts
• subsequent game performance
• National Hockey League (NHL)
• hot hand phenomenon
• cold hand phenomenon
• momentum