Hydrological responses to future climate change in semi-arid region of Iran (Golabar and Taham Basins, Zanjan Province)

Abstract

One of the most challenging and warning issues that have globally been introduced is the climate change and its effects on water resources. Climate change due to global warming has increased temperature and evaporation potential and has changed the precipitation pattern as well as precipitation amount in different seasons. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrological response of the basins of Golabar and Taham (in Zanjan province, Iran) in two future periods 2020–2030 and 2046–2065.10 different Global Climate Models (GCM) were analyzed to introduce novel selected model for future climate projections. The future climate parameters were simulated using the best climate model under the A1B and B1 emission scenarios. Two pessimistic and optimistic future climatic scenarios were defined based on the worst and the most desirable climate condition (using the temperature and precipitation data). The results showed that in the pessimistic scenario, the average annual temperature will rise 1.77 °C and 2.19 °C in Golabar and Taham basins, respectively. For the annual precipitation, reduction of 6.49 and 3.75 percent is shown for the Golabar and Taham basins, respectively. Also, in the average annual river flow, Golabar and Taham basins will experience a decrease of more than 25 percent in the future period (2046–2065). In the optimistic scenario, Golabar and Taham basins will experience 0.29 °C and 0.51 °C increase in the average annual temperature, respectively. In the annual precipitation, 3.6 and 7.01 percent increase is shown for the Golabar and Taham basins, respectively. In the average annual river flow, an increase of 7 % and 15 % would be expected in the future period (2020–2030) for the Golabar and the Taham basins, respectively.

Keywords

• are not required (we use an algorithm to generate them)