Theoretical Requirements of Deterrence in Complex-Chaotic International Systems: A Step towards a New Theory of Nonlinear Deterrence

Abstract

The deterrence system has developed with the evolution of the international system and has experienced new forms. Facing the unstable and unpredictable challenges of the future, along with asymmetric threats in a nonlinear mechanism, is required to design a new analytical apparatus of deterrence and its conceptual and theoretical reconstruction. It forms the main purpose of the present article. In this regard, the fundamental question arises as to how in this model of the emerging international system, deterrence can be reconstructed conceptually and theoretically? The author intends to reconstruct it by using the method of deductive inference and focusing on theories of complexity and chaos, especially its basic principles such as the networked structure of the system, nonlinearity, sensitive dependence, and cascading failure. This study focuses on the dynamics of power and the mechanisms that turn it into a threat through nonlinear logic and its mechanisms and the principles emphasized by the theory of complexity and chaos. The author introduces nonlinear network deterrence to the field of strategic studies as an innovative and new concept. This pattern is a start point of the sixth wave of deterrence in International Relations. It will provide a new model for designing Iran's deterrence.

Keywords

• deterrence
• nonlinear network deterrence
• multilayer network deterrence
• complexity
• chaos
• complex and chaotic international system