FULL-SCALE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN WAR IN THE CONTEXT OF WORLD-SYSTEM ANALYSIS

Abstract

The meaning and role of a full-scale Russian-Ukrainian War of 2022–? years through the prism of theoretical provisions of world-system analysis are investigated. The main theoretical provisions of the world-system analysis regarding the dynamics of the change of hegemon states in the core of the world-economy are considered. According to the world-system theory, the trends unfolding in the modern world are analyzed and correspond to the period before the beginning of the «final crisis» of the current hegemony. The following changes in the modern world as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian War are highlighted: systematic violation of the world «rules of the game» established as a result of the Second World War and the «cold» war; demonstration of the inability of the United States to perform the functions of a world hegemon; compromising the activities of multilateral organizations created after 1945; increasing the level of danger in the world. Full-scale Russian-Ukrainian War of 2022–? years is defined as an event signifying the early start of the entry of the world-economy into the «final crisis» of the current hegemony. This war, by historical analogy (among the wars that in the past preceded the active phase of the struggle for hegemony), most of all resembles the Japanese-Chinese War of 1937–1945. Based on the analysis of the current war, a number of features of the upcoming «World Thirty Years' War» are predicted, the key of which is that the methods of warfare are likely to be similar to those of the First and Second World Wars – this is a clash of large land armies, indiscriminate attacks on cities, etc. It has been determined that the Thirty Years' World War can take place in two formats: «hybrid» (there is no direct military clash between «centres of power», but there are numerous wars on the territory of «peripheral» countries) and «full-scale» (which, with a high probability, may eventually lead to the use of nuclear weapons).

Keywords

• world-system analysis
• capitalist world-economy
• final crisis of the current hegemony
• world thirty years' war
• full-scale russian-ukrainian war