Modeling the infection risk and emergency evacuation from bioaerosol leakage around an urban vaccine factory

Abstract

Abstract Mounting interest in modeling outdoor diffusion and transmission of bioaerosols due to the prevalence of COVID-19 in the urban environment has led to better knowledge of the issues concerning exposure risk and evacuation planning. In this study, the dispersion and deposition dynamics of bioaerosols around a vaccine factory were numerically investigated under various thermal conditions and leakage rates. To assess infection risk at the pedestrian level, the improved Wells-Riley equation was used. To predict the evacuation path, Dijkstra’s algorithm, a derived greedy algorithm based on the improved Wells-Riley equation, was applied. The results show that, driven by buoyancy force, the deposition of bioaerosols can reach 80 m on the windward sidewall of high-rise buildings. Compared with stable thermal stratification, the infection risk of unstable thermal stratification in the upstream portion of the study area can increase by 5.53% and 9.92% under a low and high leakage rate, respectively. A greater leakage rate leads to higher infection risk but a similar distribution of high-risk regions. The present work provides a promising approach for infection risk assessment and evacuation planning for the emergency response to urban bioaerosol leakage.