Production Scheduling Based on Smart Forecasting Model of Bottled Mineral Water Products

Abstract

Optimal production planning is a problem that causes product stock buildup at PT Marina. Factors that affect production planning in the company are the conditions of Demand, Safety Stock, and Production Costs. The results of the demand forecasting method chosen are the Moving Average with N = 3 and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) = 0.05 is 68,084 boxes/period with a production cost of IDR 544,672.00/period. The Safety Stock of bottle products in the ninth forecasting period is 8076 Boxes. Based on the three factors above, an intelligent production planning model was developed using a fuzzy logic approach. The result of defuzzification of demand planning for bottle products for the ninth or three months using the Center of Area (COA) method was 59,917 Boxes. Based on the defuzzification of production planning, the total cost of aggregate production planning for the next three months using the chase strategy method is 617,235,300. 1500 ml = 17,105 boxes. Based on the aggregate planning model above, the company can schedule production and raw materials so that the warehouse’s product stock management is maintained optimally.