An empirical study on spatial-temporal dynamics and influencing factors of apple production in China.

Abstract

In the context of supply-side structural reform, revealing the characteristics of spatial-temporal dynamics and influencing factors of China's apple production layout is of great significance to ensure apple supply and demand balance and timely adjustment of industrial policies and regional layout strategies. Based on national and provincial apple production data from 1978 to 2016, this study used the apple production concentration index to analyse the evolution characteristics of regional apple production patterns in China. A theoretical analysis framework was established and a spatial econometric model was used to quantitatively explore the influencing factors of China's apple production layout. The results showed that, first, since the reform and opening-up policy, a general trend of fluctuating growth was found for apple production in China. The centre of apple production layout moved in the southwest direction, with the shift from the Bohai Bay region to the Loess Plateau region. Second, apple production had a significant spatial correlation, while the degree of spatial agglomeration gradually decreased. Third, these changes were significantly influenced by apple comparative income, infrastructure, policies, and climatic conditions. Therefore, it is necessary to continue optimizing and adjusting the apple spatial layout to enhance the technological progress and economic effect of the apple industry and to ensure the stability and balance of regional supply and demand.