Selecting the group method of data handling as one of the most perspective algorithmes for building a predictive model of petroleum consumption in the system of energy balance of Ukraine

Abstract

This paper deals with issues of petroleum consumption in Ukraine. The dynamics of consumption of petroleum is analysed and proposed guidelines for the efficient production, consumption and import of petroleum in Ukraine. Constructed and developed predictive models of petroleum consumption in Ukraine through the use of modern software and using the group method of data handling, which allowed building adequate predictive models of petroleum consumption in the system of Ukraine’s energy balance. Researched and forecasted scenarios of petroleum consumption in the Ukraine. The problem of efficient use of energy resources is critical for sustainable economic development against the backdrop of energy saving national economy depends on energy imports, on the one hand, and rising prices for these resources. The basic foundation of the formation energy system of Ukraine is to build forecasting scenarios for different types of energy and different criteria for effective use of energy resources. Solving this problem is not only with ensuring energy security, but also with the level of development of regions of Ukraine and ensuring quality of life. Prediction of petroleum consumption in Ukraine today is an extremely important issue of strategic importance since conducted through analysis and building predictive models will be possible to develop guidelines for the efficient production and consumption of petroleum across Ukraine as a whole.

Keywords

• energy conservation
• energy efficiency
• energy balance
• еnergy statistics