Assimilation of Polarimetric Radar Data in Simulation of a Supercell Storm with a Variational Approach and the WRF Model

Abstract

Polarimetric radar data (PRD) have potential to be used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to improve convective-scale weather forecasts. However, thus far only a few studies have been undertaken in this research direction. To assimilate PRD in NWP models, a forward operator, also called a PRD simulator, is needed to establish the relation between model physics parameters and polarimetric radar variables. Such a forward operator needs to be accurate enough to make quantitative comparisons between radar observations and model output feasible, and to be computationally efficient so that these observations can be easily incorporated into a data assimilation (DA) scheme. To address this concern, a set of parameterized PRD simulators for the horizontal reflectivity, differential reflectivity, specific differential phase, and cross-correlation coefficient were developed. In this study, we have tested the performance of these new operators in a variational DA system. Firstly, the tangent linear and adjoint (TL/AD) models for these PRD simulators have been developed and checked for the validity. Then, both the forward operator and its adjoint model have been built into the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) system. Finally, some preliminary DA experiments have been performed with an idealized supercell storm. It is found that the assimilation of PRD, including differential reflectivity and specific differential phase, in addition to radar radial velocity and horizontal reflectivity, can enhance the accuracy of both initial conditions for model hydrometer state variables and ensuing model forecasts. The usefulness of the cross-correlation coefficient is very limited in terms of improving convective-scale data analysis and NWP.

Keywords

• polarimetric radar
• data assimilation
• three-dimensional variational system
• WRF