The sensitivity of characteristics of cyclone activity to identification procedures in tracking algorithms

Abstract

The IMILAST project (‘Intercomparison of Mid-Latitude Storm Diagnostics’) was set up to compare low-level cyclone climatologies derived from a number of objective identification algorithms. This paper is a contribution to that effort where we determine the sensitivity of three key aspects of Northern Hemisphere cyclone behaviour [namely the number of cyclones, their intensity (defined here in terms of the central pressure) and their deepening rates] to specific features in the automatic cyclone identification. The sensitivity is assessed with respect to three such features which may be thought to influence the ultimate climatology produced (namely performance in areas of complicated orography, time of the detection of a cyclone, and the representation of rapidly propagating cyclones). We make use of 13 tracking methods in this analysis. We find that the filtering of cyclones in regions where the topography exceeds 1500 m can significantly change the total number of cyclones detected by a scheme, but has little impact on the cyclone intensity distribution. More dramatically, late identification of cyclones (simulated by the truncation of the first 12 hours of cyclone life cycle) leads to a large reduction in cyclone numbers over the both continents and oceans (up to 80 and 40%, respectively). Finally, the potential splitting of the trajectories at times of the fastest propagation has a negligible climatological effect on geographical distribution of cyclone numbers. Overall, it has been found that the averaged deepening rates and averaged cyclone central pressure are rather insensitive to the specifics of the tracking procedure, being more sensitive to the data set used (as shown in previous studies) and the geographical location of a cyclone.

Keywords

• cyclone identification
• IMILAST
• cyclone life cycle
• rapidly intensifying cyclones
• synoptic climatology
• reanalysis