Long-term optimization of hydro & solar power electricity generation in the Taoussa area of Mali using the MESSAGE model

Abstract

Optimization for a long-term electricity supply strategy with renewable energy is essential for electricity security and financial and environmental sustainability. The main goal of this study is to find the equilibrium between electricity demand and sustainable optimal electricity supply mix scenarios of the Taoussa area at the least cost for the development of north in Mali, by using the Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE) from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for the period 2020-2035. This model is applied to obtain the least-cost electricity and supply of electricity under electricity demand forecasted by reference scenario (RS) and two alternative scenarios (Low scenario, LS; High scenario, HS), technical information on power generation per technology and regional information. The result obtained from the optimization of the power management strategy shows that the final electricity generation is 1.02 times greater than the electricity demand and the annual increase of power generation is equivalent to 8.13%, 10.32% and 12.56%, under different scenarios. The maximum power from PV and hydropower by scenarios are from April to May in the hot season. Thus, the proposed MESSAGE model is useful in improving the economical-environmental optimization of the operation of large-scale hybrid renewable electricity supply.

Keywords

• Electricity generation
• Long-term electricity plan
• Scenario analysis
• MESSAGE model
• Economical-environmental optimization