Stabilising CO2 concentration as a channel for global disaster risk mitigation

Abstract

Abstract We investigate the influence of anthropogenic $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ CO 2 concentration fluctuations on the likelihood of climate-related disasters. We calibrate annual incidence rates against global disasters and $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ CO 2 growth spanning from 1960 to 2022 based on a dynamic panel logit model. We also study the sensitivity of disaster incidence to stochastic carbon dynamics consistent with IPCC-projected climate outcomes for 2100. The key insight is that present and lagged $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ CO 2 growth contains valuable information about the likelihood of future disaster events. We further show that lowering carbon stock uncertainty by dampening the persistence or the variability of $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ CO 2 concentration has a first-order impact on mitigating expected disaster risk.

Keywords

• Climate change mitigation
• $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ CO 2 concentration
• Disaster incidence rate
• Logit regression