Application of Physics Model in prediction of the Hellas Euro election results

Abstract

In this paper we use chaos theory to predict the Hellenic Euro election results in the form of time series for Hellenic political parties New Democracy (ND), Panhellenic Socialistic Movement (PASOK), Hellenic Communistic Party (KKE) , Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA) and (Popular Orthodox Rally) LAOS, using the properties of the reconstructed strange attrac-tor of the corresponding non linear system, creating a new scientific field called “DemoscopoPhysics”. For this purpose we found the optimal delay time, the correlation and embedding dimension with the method of Grassberger and Procassia. With the help of topological properties of the corresponding strange attractor we achieved up to a 60 time steps out of sample pre-diction of the public survey.

Keywords

• DimoscopoPhysics
• Chaos
• Forecasting Model