The influence of intraseasonal oscillations on rainfall variability over Central Africa: case of the 25–70 days variability

Abstract

Abstract The influence of intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) on rainfall in Central Africa (CA) during the March–May (MAM) season is assessed using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center daily gridded rainfall data. ISO indices are defined using the time series analysis of the first two principal components resulting from the empirical orthogonal function, applied to daily filtered outgoing longwave radiation. Based on these indices, a total of 71 strong Intraseasonal Events (SIEs) and 66 weak Intraseasonal Events (WIEs) were selected using threshold method. The results show that SIEs are associated with enhanced rainfall conditions over almost all the study area, while WIEs provide a meridional dipole-like rainfall pattern, consisting of increasing precipitation in the western part and decreasing in the eastern part of CA. The relationship with Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) was also examined. The positive rainfall anomalies associated with MJO phases progress eastward and are modulated by the 850 and 200 hPa horizontal wind. The circulation, linked to geopotential height anomalies at lower layers, tends to strengthen (reduce) the convective activity over the region during extreme ISO events and for the MAM season throughout the study period. Uncentered pattern correlation was further used to assess the link between ISO and MJO phases during the MAM season and we found a correlation of 0.5 in precipitation anomalies between phases 1 and 2 of the MJO and the SIEs; − 0.4 and − 0.6 between phases 5 and 6 and the SIEs respectively, suggesting a strong relationship between ISO events and MJO.