Adapting cropping systems to future climate change scenario in three agro-climatic zones of Punjab, India

Abstract

The present study focuses on (1) projections of future climate data (for the years of 2020, 2050 and 2080) from three general circulation models (HadCM3, CCCMA-CGCM2 and CSIRO-MK2) for two scenarios (A2 and B2) for three agro-climatic zones of the Indian Punjab (ii) assessment of climate change impact on productivity of maize-wheat cropping system in moist to dry sub-humid, rice-wheat in hot dry semiarid and cotton-wheat in hot arid zones and (iii) evaluation of shifting planting dates as an adaptation measure to sustain crop yields. The results indicate that in future the magnitude of climate change and variability would vary with agro-climatic zone, model and scenario. Maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall would be higher in moist to dry sub-humid zone than hot arid. Simulations with cropping system model anticipated reduction in yields of all the three cropping systems for future years; however, cotton crop was more vulnerable than maize and rice. Delaying trans/planting of maize by 7 days in sub humid zone, rice by 7-15 days in semi arid and cotton by 21 days in arid zone in future emerged as doable adaptation measure to minimize yield reduction in future.

Keywords

• General circulation models
• Agro-climatic zones
• CropSyst model
• crop yields
• adaptation