Evaluation of earthquake disaster recovery patterns and influencing factors: a case study of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

Abstract

ABSTRACTEarthquakes will significantly impact the economic development of earthquake-affected areas and the regional post-earthquake economic recovery trajectory. We presented an explorative analysis of disaster resilience and introduced a quantitative framework to model recovery patterns of earthquake disasters. Four resilience metrics, namely instant disturbance, recovery rate, recovery time, and accumulated loss, were calculated to measure resilience as a dynamic process. Furthermore, we applied random forests to explore the potential factors influencing recovery patterns. The selected factors fell into three categories: 1) disaster factors, 2) environmental factors, and 3) socioeconomic factors. The framework’s utility was demonstrated in a retrospective study of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, which uncovered the differences in the long-term recovery trajectory of earthquake-affected areas and their influencing factors. The county-level analyses indicated a substantial spatial and temporal variation in the recovery patterns. Earthquake disaster resilience was related to socioeconomic factors and had an association with environmental and disaster factors. Our study not only helped to enrich the understanding of earthquake disaster resilience but also provided a basis for disaster mitigation strategies.

Keywords

• Resilience
• earthquake disaster
• economic recovery
• random forest algorithm