Global riverine flood risk – how do hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps compare to flood hazard maps?

Abstract

Riverine flood risk studies often require the identification of areas prone to potential flooding. This modelling process can be based on either (hydrologically derived) flood hazard maps or (topography-based) hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps. In this paper, we derive and compare riverine flood exposure from three global products: a hydrogeomorphic floodplain map (GFPLAIN250m, hereinafter GFPLAIN) and two flood hazard maps (Flood Hazard Map of the World by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, hereinafter JRC, and the flood hazard maps produced for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015, hereinafter GAR). We find an average spatial agreement between these maps of around 30 % at the river basin level on a global scale. This agreement is highly variable across model combinations and geographic conditions, influenced by climatic humidity, river volume, topography, and coastal proximity. Contrary to expectations, the agreement between the two flood hazard maps is lower compared to their agreement with the hydrogeomorphic floodplain map. We also map riverine flood exposure for 26 countries across the global south by intersecting these maps with three human population maps (Global Human Settlement population grid, hereinafter GHS; High Resolution Settlement Layer, hereinafter HRSL; and WorldPop). The findings of this study indicate that hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps can be a valuable way of producing high-resolution maps of flood-prone zones to support riverine flood risk studies, but caution should be taken in regions that are dry, steep, very flat, or near the coast.