Duration and Labor Resource Optimization for Construction Projects—A Conditional-Value-at-Risk-Based Analysis

Abstract

The complexity and uncertainty of construction projects contribute to low efficiency in the construction industry. This research applied the Takt-time planning method to optimize the construction working process, and proposed a risk control framework based on Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) approaches to explore and predict a project schedule and cost performance under different scenarios. This research selected a high-rise residential building project for a case study and collected 1672 productivity data samples. Arena Simulation models were established based on 90 combinations of labor assignments to assess Takt-time planning strategies’ impact on project performance in four scenarios. The VaR and CVaR evaluations at 75% and 90% confidence levels were compared to balance project benefits and risks. Without any overtime or additional workers, this research found a Takt-time planning method that can reduce the project duration by 20.2% and labor costs by 2.1% at the same time, using a labor assignment of 12 bar placers, 12 carpenters, and 5 pipefitters. The findings can assist construction managers to achieve a shorter duration, reduced cost, and safer work environment, which will be very effective and beneficial to improve project overall performance.

Keywords

• Takt-time planning
• Arena Simulation
• risk evaluation
• Value at Risk
• Conditional Value at Risk