Comparative analysis of demographic potential of rural territories of the central black earth

Abstract

The article presents the substantiation of the methodology for comparative analysis of the demographic potential of rural areas and identifies the main trends in the development of the demographic potential of rural areas of the Central Black Earth Economic Region. Rural areas are considered as an essential factor in the reproduction of the natural, economic, demographic and socio-cultural potential of Russian society. It has been substantiated that the main problems hindering sustainable social development are mainly due to the change in the balance between the urban and rural populations characteristic of the era of accelerated industrialization. The definition of demographic potential as a set of opportunities and conditions for the development of territories lying in the sphere of population reproduction is given, and a great variability of the concept of demographic potential in sociological and demographic discourses is noted. Taking into account two key factors of population dynamics – fertility and migration, it is proposed to measure the demographic potential of Russian municipalities by using indicators such as the proportion of the population of reproductive age, the birth rate and the coefficient of migration inflow/outflow of the population. The expediency of using available statistical data, adapted in relation to the proposed research methodology, is shown. Based on the generalization and analysis of statistical data characterizing the natural and migration movement of the population of rural areas of five regions of the Central Black Earth Economic Region, as well as the results of the sociological study “Mental inequalities as a factor in the social polarization of the Russian province” conducted in the Belgorod and Voronezh regions in 2018-2019, it was concluded that the rural areas of the Central Black Earth Economic Region are characterized by heterogeneity of the demographic potential, which in the Kursk and Tambov regions is acquiring the character of obvious degradation, and the migration attractiveness of the territories (with the exception of suburbs) has rather negative values.