Frequency of Italian Record-Breaking Floods over the Last Century (1911–2020)

Abstract

This study provides an in-depth analysis of the frequency of extreme streamflow in Italy, adopting the innovative perspective of the theory of records, and focusing on record-breaking floods. (i.e., annual maximum series, AMS) observed in Italy between 1911 and 2020. Our research employs an extensive dataset of 522 annual maximum series (AMS) of streamflow observed across Italy between 1911 and 2020. We consider three time intervals (1911–2020, 1911–1970, and 1971–2020), and we define pooling-groups of AMSs based on (a) hydrological (e.g., catchment size, mean annual precipitation, etc.) and (b) spatial proximities of the gauged sites. First, within each group and for each time period, we compute the regional average number of record-breaking events (NRbins). Second, with a series of resampling experiments that preserve the spatial correlation among the AMSs, we test the hypothesis that NRbins result from a group of stationary sequences. Our results show spatially coherent patterns of an increasing number of record-breaking floods in central and in northeastern Italy over the last 50 years. In the same time interval, significant deviations in the regional number of record-breaking events from what would be expected for stationary flood sequences seem to be more common in drier climates or at higher altitudes, while the catchment size does not seem to be a meaningful descriptor.

Keywords

• floods
• record-breaking
• climate change
• bootstrap sampling