Future scenarios for the value of ecosystem services in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2050

Abstract

We explore the implications of four scenarios for the value of ecosystem services provided by terrestrial ecosystems to the year 2050 for Latin America and the Caribbean, based on the Great Transition Initiative scenarios and previous studies at a global scale. We estimated the current ecosystem services value (ESV) of the 33 countries that make up this region to be $US15.3 trillion/year. By modelling the four future scenarios, we estimated that there is a potential for ESV to decrease to $8 trillion/year (for the “Fortress World” scenario) or an increase to $19 trillion/year (for the “Great Transition” scenario), a difference of a 47% decrease or a 25% increase. Our results indicate that adopting appropriate policies could greatly enhance human well-being and sustainability in the region and help to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Keywords

• Scenario planning
• Economic value
• Ecosystem services
• Natural capital