Return values of temperature and snow loadings for 50, 100 and 120-year return periods to support building design standards in Ireland

Abstract

This research produced gridded datasets and maps for use in building design standards to enhance resilience in support of climate change adaptation in Ireland. The new isothermal maps of return values of maximum and minimum air temperatures at mean sea level for 50, 100 and 120-year return periods based on the generalised extreme value distribution will be crucial to inform the design of buildings and bridges. The warming of the maximum and minimum air temperatures due to climate change has increased the intensity of the highest maximum air temperature while decreasing the intensity of the lowest extreme minimum air temperature of the new isothermal maps compared to previously published maps for a 50-year return period. Specifically, the new extreme isotherms are 32 ∘C for the maximum air temperature and −14 ∘C for the minimum air temperature, whereas the processor maps presented 30 and −16 ∘C, respectively. The geographical distribution of the isotherms for the 120-year return period range from 28 to 34 ∘C for the maximum air temperature and from −6 to −18 ∘C for the minimum air temperature. For the first time, isothermal maps of return values of the lowest 10 cm soil temperature for 50, 100 and 120-year return periods based on the generalised extreme value distribution have been produced for Ireland. The results presented here will be paramount to supporting the design of building structures. The values of the 120-year return period range from 0 to −2 ∘C. The produced maps represent the worst-case scenario in the current context of climate warming. The new maps of return values of snow loading at 100 m above mean sea level for 50, 100 and 120-year return periods based on the generalised Pareto distribution will be indispensable to support the design of buildings and civil engineering works such as roof patterns or bridges. The values of the 50-year return period map present four classes spread North-East to South-West: < 0.3, 0.3–0.4, 0.4–0.5 and 0.5–0.6 kN m−2, which is more accurate than the previously published map. It is expected that the comprehensive explanation of the methods and the rationale for the new maps presented here as being more accurate than the preceding maps will assist regulators in adopting these new maps in their own jurisdictions. Furthermore, these new maps will be of interest to a diversity of sectors, planners and policymakers to make long, lasting and climate-based sensitive decisions.