Creating a model of threats to Ukraine’s national critical infrastructure as a basis for ensuring its security and resilience

Abstract

The article presents the current problems of protecting Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, current threats to its security and the need to organise proper counteraction under martial law. Threats to critical infrastructure include factors that can actually or potentially harm the stability of its operation, functionality, integrity, resilience or lead to its destruction. The purpose of the article is to create an up-to-date threat model that formalises the likely impacts on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, which will improve the effectiveness of its protection. The scientific novelty of the article is that it examines the actual needs and problematic issues of forming a modern model of threats to critical infrastructure, primarily in the context of the ongoing full-scale military aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine. Creating a threat model is defined for critical infrastructure as a necessity to ensure effective protection of its facilities. The formation of a basic threat model for critical infrastructure facilities, which should include related models of the facility, situation and intruder, is currently an important element of the algorithm for solving this problem. The basic model of threats to critical infrastructure is the framework on which the state determines who and what it needs to protect itself from at the national level. However, Ukrainian legislation currently does not provide for the need to develop a model of threats to the national critical infrastructure, which negatively affects the state of its security and resilience. The perspective measures that will contribute to both the stable functioning of critical infrastructure facilities and ensure their proper protection are outlined: enshrining in Ukrainian legislation the need to develop a model of threats to critical infrastructure, adopting regulations on standardisation of risk management processes for critical infrastructure in order to prevent threats, and more.

Keywords

• critical infrastructure
• facilities
• threats
• security
• protection
• counteraction
• neutralisation
• mitigation
• improvement.