Estimating the Duration of Construction Works Using Fuzzy Modeling to Assess the Impact of Risk Factors

Abstract

One of the most pressing issues in the implementation of construction projects is the extension of planned deadlines, significantly impacting project costs. This situation often arises due to inaccurate estimation of construction durations, which rely on normative values without accounting for factors hindering construction progress. Consequently, this article aims to develop an innovative approach for assessing construction durations, considering specific risk factors and their influence on construction activities. Given the difficulty of determining risk factors and their effects during the design phase using classical probability theory, characterized by unknown probability distributions, it is highlighted that this scenario represents planning and implementation under conditions of non-statistical uncertainty. Therefore, the article proposes an approach utilizing elements of fuzzy set theory, particularly fuzzy rules and linguistic variables, to determine delays in individual construction tasks. The proposed approach involves estimating extensions of construction timelines based on a specified probability level of occurrence for risk events and their impact. Additionally, the article provides a theoretical description of the proposed approach and practical calculation examples, demonstrating that the authors’ approach significantly enhances the accuracy of construction timeline forecasts, providing more reliable data for project planning and management.

Keywords

• construction scheduling
• fuzzy sets
• time contingency
• construction project planning
• risk management
• risk matrix