Statistical fractal behavior of the dengue epidemic dynamics in Palmira, Valle del Cauca, Colombia between 2001-2004

Abstract

Introduction: Phenomena such as fetal monitoring and specific T cell repertoire against the allergen Poa p9 have been evaluated through the Zipf/Mandelbrot law. Objective: To establish a methodology for the characterization of the dynamics of dengue in Palmira, Valle del Cauca, Colombia, based on the Zipf/Mandelbrot law during the period 2001-2004. Materials and methods: Using the Zipf-Mandelbrot law, changes by age groups ( 60) were evaluated, as well as the complexity of the system versus the number of patients infected with dengue in Palmira, each year between 2001 and 2004. Results were compared to establish variations in the complexity, and simulations of possible behaviors that might arise were performed. Results: Fractal dimensions for each year were among 0.5329 and 0.8703, and for age groups between 0.4694 and 0.6689.The simulations of the dynamics per year presented fractal dimensions between 0.4512 and 0.6316, and age ranges between 0.455 and 0.6095. Conclusion: The dynamic of dengue onset in Palmira is caused by a statistical fractal behavior with finite and limited degrees of complexity, useful in decision-making in public health.

Keywords

• Fractales
• Dengue
• Epidemias
• Predicción
• Dinámica de población