Optimal future energy mix assessment considering the risk of supply for seven European countries in 2030 and 2050

Abstract

The scope of energy system modeling is to support policy-makers in the definition of an effective energy strategy to achieve key targets (emissions, energy security, affordability, etc.). The aim of this article is to study the future optimal energy mix needed to reach European energy targets by also containing the risk of supply for seven European countries in 2030 and 2050. The considered countries are the following: Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden. EPLANopt which couples the deterministic simulation model EnergyPLAN developed by Aalborg University with a Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm built on the Python library DEAP is used for this analysis. The multi-objective approach allows for the assessment of the optimal future scenarios considering both an economic and environmental objective functions. Moreover, the security of supply is evaluated for each optimal solution. The results obtained in terms of variable renewable energy penetration, taking into account ground-mounted, rooftop photovoltaics, onshore and offshore wind power, are compared to the penetrations obtained from the scenarios of ENTSO-E. The results show that the decarbonization process represents an opportunity because it improves the security of supply while decreasing CO2 emissions.

Keywords

• Optimization
• Energy scenarios
• Photovoltaics
• Energyplan
• Emissions
• Cost-optimality