Prediction by data mining, of suicide attempts in Korean adolescents: a national study

Abstract

Sung Man Bae,1 Seung A Lee,2 Seung-Hwan Lee2,3 1Department of Counseling Psychology, The Cyber University of Korea, Seoul, South Korea; 2Clinical Emotion and Cognition Research Laboratory, Goyang, South Korea; 3Department of Psychiatry, Ilsan Paik Hospital, Inje University College of Medicine, Goyang, South Korea Objective: This study aimed to develop a prediction model for suicide attempts in Korean adolescents.Methods: We conducted a decision tree analysis of 2,754 middle and high school students nationwide. We fixed suicide attempt as the dependent variable and eleven sociodemographic, intrapersonal, and extrapersonal variables as independent variables.Results: The rate of suicide attempts of the total sample was 9.5%, and severity of depression was the strongest variable to predict suicide attempt. The rates of suicide attempts in the depression and potential depression groups were 5.4 and 2.8 times higher than that of the non-depression group. In the depression group, the most powerful factor to predict a suicide attempt was delinquency, and the rate of suicide attempts in those in the depression group with higher delinquency was two times higher than in those in the depression group with lower delinquency. Of special note, the rate of suicide attempts in the depressed females with higher delinquency was the highest. Interestingly, in the potential depression group, the most impactful factor to predict a suicide attempt was intimacy with family, and the rate of suicide attempts of those in the potential depression group with lower intimacy with family was 2.4 times higher than that of those in the potential depression group with higher intimacy with family. And, among the potential depression group, middle school students with lower intimacy with family had a 2.5-times higher rate of suicide attempts than high school students with lower intimacy with family. Finally, in the non-depression group, stress level was the most powerful factor to predict a suicide attempt. Among the non-depression group, students who reported high levels of stress showed an 8.3-times higher rate of suicide attempts than students who reported average levels of stress.Discussion: Based on the results, we especially need to pay attention to depressed females with higher delinquency and those with potential depression with lower intimacy with family to prevent suicide attempts in teenagers. Keywords: predictor, severity of depression, suicide, delinquency, intimacy with family