Urbanization Trends Analysis Using Hybrid Modeling of Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchical Process-Cellular Automata-Markov Chain and Investigating Its Impact on Land Surface Temperature over Gharbia City, Egypt

Abstract

Quick population increase and the desire for urbanization are the main drivers for accelerating urban expansion on agricultural lands in Egypt. This issue is obvious in governorates with no desert backyards. This study aims to (1) explore the trend of Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) through the period of 1991–2018; (2) upgrade the reliability of predicting LULCC by integrating the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP); and (3) perform analysis of urbanization risk on LST trends over the Gharbia governorate for the decision makers to implement effective strategies for sustainable land use. Multi-temporal Landsat images were used to monitor LULCC dynamics from 1991 to 2018 and then simulate LULCC in 2033 and 2048. Two comparable models were adopted for the simulation of spatiotemporal dynamics of land use in the study area: CA-Markov chain and FAHP-CA-Markov chain hybrid models. The second model upgrades the potential of the CA-Markov chain for prediction by its integration with FAHP, which can determine the locations of high potential to be urbanized. The outcomes stated a significant LULCC in Gharbia during the study period—specifically, urban sprawl on agricultural land, and this trend is predicted to carry on. The agricultural sector represented 91.2% in 1991 and reduced to 83.7% in 2018. The built-up area is almost doubled by 2048 with respect to 2018. The regression analysis revealed the LST increase due to urbanization, causing an urban heat island phenomenon. Criteria-based analysis reveals the district’s vulnerability to rapid urbanization, which is efficient for data-gap zones. The simulation results make sense since the FAHP-CA-Markov simulated the LULCC in a thoughtful way, considering the driving forces of LULCC, while the CA-Markov chain results were relatively random. Therefore, the FAHP-CA-Markov chain is the pioneer to be relied upon for future projection. The findings of this work provide a better understanding of LULCC trends over the years supporting decision makers toward sustainable land use. Thus, further urbanization should be planned to avert the loss of agricultural land and uninterrupted increasing temperatures.

Keywords

• LULCC dynamics
• Gharbia governorate
• hybrid models
• CA-Markov chain
• fuzzy AHP
• UHI