Scenario development of Golestan province tourism area with a futuristic approach

Abstract

Tourism is one of the most important development tools in the world. Golestan province based on natural, historical and cultural resources The region is prone to the development of the tourism industry And This province should be in its future policies and plans Pay particular attention to tourism as an effective tool for continuing the process of political, cultural and economic development. Therefore, this research is aimed at developing scenarios for developing the tourism area of Golestan province with a future study approach. In terms of the purpose of this research, the method is a combination of documentary and scrolling methods. The statistical population of this research includes all experts.Which has enough knowledge and experience in the tourism sector. The non-probabilistic sampling method is using two methods for judging and snowball sampling. The data gathering tool was a questionnaire and an interview with experts. The results of this study Based on the Mic-Mac software output showed that the eight main factors affecting the future development of the Golestan province are influential. According to these, eight factors include private sector participation, tourism acceptance culture, entrepreneurship in the tourism sector, establishment of shopping centers, security of domestic and foreign tourists, incomes of the tourism sector and infrastructure of the government in the tourism industry. four scenarios were identified and selected Based on the twofold "uncertainty" and "importance," For the four likely future of Golestan province from the combination of two axes of uncertainty "tourism entrepreneurship" and "tourism acceptance culture".

Keywords

• forecasting
• tourism industry
• scenarios
• golestan province